For the most part, Thursday’s games were tough to watch. Tennessee mounted a great comeback against Purdue, but couldn’t get it done in overtime. Otherwise, none of the other three games provided the fireworks fans were hoping for.
Either way, we’re having an Elite Eight, and it starts tonight. Here are in-depth breakdowns of each game: what you can expect, key matchups and more for Saturday’s showdowns:
WEST REGIONAL FINAL
3 Texas Tech vs 1 Gonzaga (6:09 p.m., TBS)
How they got here:
Gonzaga – defeated 16 Fairleigh Dickinson, 87-49 (1st Round), defeated 9 Baylor, 83-71 (2nd Round), defeated 4 Florida State, 72-58 (Sweet 16)
Texas Tech – defeated 14 Northern Kentucky, 72-57 (1st Round), defeated 6 Buffalo, 78-58 (2nd Round), defeated 2 Michigan, 63-44 (Sweet 16)
What to expect:
Gonzaga has one of the most efficient offenses of the last 15 years, and Texas Tech is the most impressive defensive team in the nation. You can expect one of the most glaring clashes of styles you’ll see in this entire tournament.
Texas Tech’s defense is predicated on cutting off the middle, sending everything to the wings and baseline, then rotating over to draw charges, trap or force a tough shot. This team is loaded with elite defenders at every position, and its length and understanding of angles makes it so difficult to beat. If you can get into the middle, the defense can break down, but that’s a tall task for even the best offensive teams. Even if you do get there, you have to watch for Tariq Owens, one of the nation’s best rim protectors, who is liable to rotate and swat whatever you throw up. Just ask Michigan and Buffalo about this Tech defense.
Gonzaga loves to play in transition with a unique ability to let one of its big men, forward Rui Hachimura, run the break. That lets players like guards Zach Norvell, Corey Kispert and forward Killian Tillie to spot up on the wings. When a guard, like Josh Perkins, runs the break, Hachimura has proven he can shoot the three, and he and forward Brandon Clarke are two of the best bigs in the nation at running the floor. When shots don’t go down, the Bulldogs generate a lot of points from Clarke’s offensive rebounding ability. The forward boasts a 15.2 offensive rebounding percentage, 10th among tournament players. He grabbed three against Florida State and 12 boards in total, nabbing roughly 19.9 percent of all rebounds available to him, the most of anyone in the game.
The Zags like to send their guards low, then bring them back up and give them a ball screen with momentum. It will be interesting to see this form of attack, which heavily utilizes the middle of the floor, against Tech’s defense. You have to be a remarkably disciplined defensive team in order to stop or slow down Gonzaga, and the Red Raiders unquestionably fit that bill. There aren’t many teams in the country that can handle Gonzaga’s offense or Texas Tech’s defense when they’re playing at their best, but these two teams are both capable dealing with the other.
That’s not to say Gonzaga is poor defensively or Texas Tech doesn’t have a potent offense. Those aren’t these teams’ strengths, but there’s talent there. Gonzaga’s defense was vital in its Sweet 16 victory over Florida State, particularly on the perimeter, holding guard Terance Mann to a 12.5 effective field goal percentage and Florida State to 3-of-20 from beyond the arc. The Red Raiders have three main scorers in guards Jarrett Culver, Matt Mooney and Davide Moretti, and Owens is capable of scoring a few rolling off screens. Still, you watch Gonzaga for its offense and Tech for its defense, and those are what have these teams in the Elite Eight.
Key matchup: Tariq Owens/Norense Odiase vs Brandon Clarke/Rui Hachimura
Owens and Odiase both move very well for players of their size and position, and that’s crucial to their defensive abilities. But can they keep up with Clarke and Hachimura, who bring big-man athleticism to another level? They’re going to have to for Texas Tech to win this one.
As discussed, the Red Raiders do everything they can to keep the ball out of the middle, and Owens and Odiase’s understanding and ability to defend ball screens is essential for that. Hachimura and Clarke are deadly on the pick and roll or pop, and those rolls are going straight through the lane. When Gonzaga misses its shots, Owens and Odiase must locate the Bulldogs bigs, particularly Clarke, and put bodies on them immediately. They’re going to have to get back in transition early and often to mitigate leak outs and easy buckets in transition.
Every time Texas Tech forces Gonzaga to play its possession in the half court and deal with its set defense, that’s a win. The Red Raiders won’t be able to do that unless Owens and Odiase are at the top of their game.
NBN’s pick: Texas Tech 72, Gonzaga 68
I love this Gonzaga team and would without a doubt pick it to make its second Final Four appearance in three years if not for having to face this Texas Tech defense in the Elite Eight. The Red Raiders have been operating on another level since early February other than that odd hiccup to West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament. This is the kind of disciplined defense required to stifle Gonzaga’s elite offense.
Gonzaga is still going to score more than Tech’s other tournament opponents, but the Bulldogs will need a fantastic defensive performance of their own to win this one. I think these are two of the top five teams in the country, and a Gonzaga victory wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. But with the defense Texas Tech has been bringing to the table, all season long and in this tournament, I have to go with the Red Raiders.
SOUTH REGIONAL FINAL
3 Purdue vs 1 Virginia (8:49 p.m., TBS)
How they got here:
Virginia – defeated 16 Gardner-Webb, 71-56 (1st Round), defeated 9 Oklahoma, 63-51 (2nd Round), defeated 12 Oregon, 53-49 (Sweet 16)
Purdue – defeated 14 Old Dominion, 61-48 (1st Round), defeated 6 Villanova, 87-61 (2nd Round), defeated 2 Tennessee in overtime, 99-94 (Sweet 16)
What to expect:
At this point, every college basketball fan knows what to expect from Virginia. Tony Bennett has had his team play the same general style for years now. You know you’re getting a slow, low-possession, grind-out battle. The difference this year compared to the past is the efficient offense to accompany the elite defense. The Hoos mustered 53 points against Oregon in the Sweet 16 and guard Kyle Guy had a poor offensive performance for his standards, but guards Ty Jerome, Kihei Clark and forward Mamadi Diakite finished with offensive ratings of 110, 118 and 113, respectively. None of their regular box score totals looked particularly impressive, with Jerome leading the way with 13 points on 5-of-12 shooting. This team is a great example of why point totals do not inherently equate to great offense.
As evidenced by the Tennessee game, Purdue is quite a different team from Virginia. Purdue’s pace is hovering around the middle of Division-I, but it’s much faster than Virginia’s 353rd-ranked tempo. The Boilermakers played in the 80s with the Volunteers in regulation and nearly broke 100 with the bonus five minutes. This isn’t a bad defensive team, but Purdue has flipped from the “Defense Lives Here” moniker the program has lived by for decades. Led by guards Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline, this team clicks on offense and has played like one of the best offensive teams in the country during this tournament run. Edwards and Cline in particularly have been on fire, scoring a combined 141 points in their three tournament games. Cline barely missed against Tennessee, showing how deadly he is curling off screens, with seven triples on an astonishing 103.8 effective field goal percentage. Edwards went through a rough stretch in February of chucks and bricks, but he has revitalized himself in the postseason as the most unstoppable force this March. He has averaged 32.3 points per game in the tournament, far and away tops for anyone in the field.
The key to slowing down Purdue is in containing their guards. Now, this is of course easier said than done. You have to always respect Cline’s shooting ability, and defending Edwards requires a full team effort because of his deep range and ridiculous driving capabilities. All of Virginia’s guards rank in the top 20 in the ACC in defensive rating, and they’ll have to be playing at their best to handle this Purdue attack. On the other side of the ball, Guy’s poor offensive performance against Oregon opened the door for the Ducks, but they couldn’t generate enough offense to capitalize. Oregon hedges its bets and let Clark have plenty of open looks from deep, and the 33.3 percent three-point shooter made three of them. But can he do it again? If I were Matt Painter, I’d test him to find out.
Key matchup: Ty Jerome vs Carsen Edwards
How could it be anything else? Edwards is the catalyst for everything Purdue does offensively. Even when he doesn’t have the ball, his pull of the defense because of the threat he poses opens up the floor for players like Cline and forward Matt Haarms to go to work. The key to stopping Purdue begins and ends with stopping, or at least slowing, Edwards. No one has been able to do that in this tournament. But if anyone can, it’s Jerome. I presume he will be Virginia’s main match up with Edwards, and he’s one of the best defenders in the country, let alone perimeter defenders.
Edwards’s usage rate against Tennessee was 34.1, and that was his lowest of any of the three tournament games. You have to suspect it will be the same, if not more, against a Virginia defense that won’t provide the Boilermakers with too many natural mismatches. Jerome’s ability to contain Edwards, along with help from his teammates, will determine this game’s outcome.
NBN’s pick: Purdue 67, Virginia 60
I’m going with the hot hands, and those are Edwards and Cline. Purdue is not going to score like it has in this game. Virginia is too good defensively, and it slows the game down much too much for that to be possible. But the Hoos offense has struggled some as of late despite maintaining solid efficiency. If Purdue can take Guy or Jerome out of the game on the offensive end, can Clark duplicate his performance from the Sweet 16? That’s not a bet I’m willing to make.
Now, the Boilermakers are not the defensive team Oregon is. It’s believable that Purdue won’t keep Guy or Jerome in check, and Virginia won’t need Clark to do anything but defend and help distribute, especially if guard De’Andre Hunter, who didn’t play his best against Oregon, has a good game. But there are too many question marks surrounding Virginia’s offense at the moment for me to go against the momentum Purdue is playing with, particularly Edwards.
