How Good is Trae Young? A Tutorial on Basketball Analytics

Recently, Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks has been getting a lot of love for Rookie of the Year. Trae averages 19 points per game and ranks 4^th in the league in assists. Should we conclude Trae is a great point guard?

Not so fast.

Trae’s poor defense makes him a below-average player (although in the future his defense may improve.) The Hawks do, however, have one of the best young players in the league: 2^nd year power forward John Collins. I’m sure plenty of you have never heard of John Collins, or at minimum don’t hear his name too often. Let’s break down why John Collins is already a great player and Trae Young is not yet even an average NBA player.

The key is to realize that defense is half the game.

Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

ESPN’s PER rating combines all per-minute box score statistics and generates a single number to measure a player’s ability. A PER of 15 is considered average. Collins has a PER of 22, ranking #26, and Young has a PER of near 17, ranking #103. The problem with PER is that it gives little weight to a player’s defensive ability. This is because the box score does not have enough meaningful defensive statistics.

ESPN Real Plus Minus (RPM)

RPM combines box score statistics with how a team performs (points for minus points against) when the player is on and off the court. RPM understands that the box score misses plenty of important plays (taking charges, setting screens, boxing out, etc.) In RPM, Trae Young ranks #416 of 500+ players. Among point guards, Young is the worst defender and ranks #18 on offense. Collins ranks #122 among all NBA players in RPM, which is definitely above average.

Adjusted Plus Minus (APM)

In 2007, noted USA statistician Jeff Sagarin and I developed Adjusted Plus Minus (APM). Essentially our APM numbers look at all ten players on the court, and parse out how each player contributed to how a team’s points for and against move.

Considering only players averaging 20 minutes per game, we rank John Collins as the 19^th best player (out of 200 players) in the league. Per 48 minutes (after adjusting for other players on the court), Collins is nine points better than an average NBA player. Six points of the nine points is due to his defense, and three points is due to his offense.

We rank Young #186 out of 200 players. Young costs the Hawks eight points per game when he is on the court. Young is the league’s 14^th best offensive player, adding seven points per game to the Hawks scoring.

Unfortunately, he ranks last in APM defense. 

When Young is on the court, he causes the Hawks to give up 15 more points per game. The failure of traditional advanced metrics to adequately measure defense causes Young to be overrated by most “so called experts.”

Looking at Lineup Combinations

Looking at how the Hawks perform with various player combinations confirms our evaluation of Collins and Young. After adjusting for strength of opponent, look at the following numbers.

For example, when Young is in and Collins out, the Hawks played an abysmal 13 points per game worse than average. These numbers show how Young’s presence on the court hurts the Hawks.

Here’s some more of what the numbers show:

Have any thoughts or arguments about Trae Young, John Collins or the Hawks for me? I would love to hear from you in the comment section.