Bracketology provides fans provide insight into how the committee sees teams and what the tournament would look like if the season ended that day. But there’s a lot that goes into it, and from only seeing the finished bracket, you don’t get the full picture.
That’s why we’re releasing a bubble watch where our bracketologist (me) breaks down where teams stand from the cutline and what they can do to remain or work themselves into the field of 68.
There are five categories: locks, should be in, over the bubble, on the bubble and bubble bursting.
Locks are teams that could lose the rest of their games and still get an at-large bid. It’s a tricky thing to lock a team up, and so it isn’t done lightly. Just because a team is unlocked doesn’t mean it won’t be in the tournament. It only means there are enough potential losses left that the resume could fall apart and risk being left out.
Should be in teams aren’t quite locks, but they’re looking pretty solid. If Selection Sunday was tomorrow, they would be absolute locks, and there’s a slim chance they play themselves out of the field. But the possibility remains, and so they stay unlocked.
Over the bubble squads are exactly that. They wouldn’t be worried about being excluded if the season ended now, but the resume isn’t strong enough that a few mistakes wouldn’t drop them down onto the bubble.
Those on the bubble are either barely in or barely out. They are receiving significant enough consideration for at-large positions, but in no way could they feel safe if the tournament selection occured now. Finally, bubble bursting teams have enough of a foundation laid that if they collected some quality wins, they could play themselves onto the bubble, but at the time aren’t receiving significant consideration for an at-large bid.
With that out of the way, let’s look at the state of the bubble as of Friday afternoon on March 5th, 2019:
LOCKS
Houston (AAC): 27-2, NET: 6, SOS: 54, vs. Q1: 4-2
Cincinnati (AAC): 25-4, NET: 21, SOS: 80, vs. Q1: 4-2
Virginia (ACC): 27-2, NET: 2, SOS: 44, vs. Q1: 10-2
Duke (ACC): 25-4 NET: 3, SOS: 2, vs. Q1: 8-3
North Carolina (ACC): 24-5, NET: 7, SOS: 4, vs. Q1: 8-5
Florida State (ACC): 23-6, NET: 19, SOS: 50, vs. Q1: 5-4
Virginia Tech (ACC): 22-6, NET: 12, SOS: 61, vs. Q1: 4-6
Louisville (ACC): 19-11, NET: 24, SOS: 5, vs. Q1: 4-9
Kansas (Big 12): 22-7, NET: 16, SOS: 1, vs. Q1: 10-6
Texas Tech (Big 12): 25-5, NET: 10, SOS: 52, vs. Q1: 5-5
Kansas State (Big 12): 23-7, NET: 27, SOS: 43, vs. Q1: 7-5
Iowa State (Big 12): 20-9, NET: 18, SOS: 29, vs. Q1: 5-6
Marquette (Big East): 23-6, NET: 26, SOS: 37, vs. Q1: 9-4
Villanova (Big East): 22-8, NET: 25, SOS: 14, vs. Q1: 4-6
Michigan (Big Ten): 26-4, NET: 9, SOS: 62, vs. Q1: 8-4
Michigan State (Big Ten): 23-6, NET: 8, SOS: 33, vs. Q1: 10-4
Purdue (Big Ten): 22-7, NET: 11, SOS: 12, vs. Q1: 7-6
Wisconsin (Big Ten): 20-9, NET: 17, SOS: 26, vs. Q1: 8-7
Maryland (Big Ten): 21-9, NET: 28, SOS: 11, vs. Q1: 6-7
Buffalo (MAC): 25-3, NET: 15, SOS: 84, vs. Q1: 2-1
Nevada (MWC): 26-3, NET: 23, SOS: 105, vs. Q1: 1-1
Tennessee (SEC): 25-3, NET: 4, SOS: 81, vs. Q1: 7-3
Kentucky (SEC): 24-5, NET: 5, SOS: 17, vs. Q1: 9-4
LSU (SEC): 24-5, NET: 13, SOS: 16, vs. Q1: 9-2
Mississippi State (SEC): 21-8, NET: 22, SOS: 18, vs. Q1: 8-5
Gonzaga (WCC): 29-2, NET: 1, SOS: 44, vs. Q1: 4-2
SHOULD BE IN
VCU (A-10): 23-6, NET: 36, SOS: 42, vs. Q1: 2-2
The Rams picked up another conference win over the weekend, this time over local archrival Richmond. While it’s another road win, a Q3 win doesn’t help the resume all that much. But as VCU continues to win and not harm its resume, lots of other teams that haven’t locked themselves up yet are. VCU has two games left, one Q3 and one Q4. Win both of those, and a lock is reasonable heading into the A-10 Tournament.
Baylor (Big 12): 19-10, NET: 34, SOS: 38, vs. Q1: 4-7
Baylor could have locked itself up with a win at Kansas State, but a six-point loss doesn’t do much either way. The Bears sit in the same place they did last week: plenty comfortable for an at-large, but could be in a bit of jeopardy if they don’t win again. A home win against Oklahoma State or a road victory at Kansas in either of Baylor’s final two regular season games would lock it up.
Iowa (Big Ten): 21-8, NET: 40, SOS: 96, vs. Q1: 4-7
Not a good time for a slide, but Iowa fans know that all too well. This is familiar territory for the Hawkeyes, who have made it an annual event to use the end of the season to undo some of the positives they had earlier in the year. Iowa has lost three of four, including a walloping at home to NET 98 Rutgers, 86-72, on Saturday, and not played well for about a month. Not in serious danger of missing the tournament as of yet, but losing at Wisconsin, at Nebraska and in its first Big Ten Tournament game could make Iowa City nervous. A win against the Badgers would lock Iowa up.
Auburn (SEC): 19-9, NET: 20, SOS: 24, vs. Q1: 2-7
While Auburn hasn’t had any elite wins all season, while everyone else on the bubble keeps losing, the Tigers continue to win. This weekend, Auburn picked up its best win of the season so far, a home victory over Mississippi State, enough to move it off the bubble completely and closer to lockdom. Remaining games at Alabama and Tennessee at home provide two great opportunities to continue to move forward.
Wofford (SoCon): 26-4, NET: 14, SOS: 129, vs. Q1: 3-4
Congrats, Wofford, you’re not longer hanging around the bubble! Winning at Samford doesn’t do much for the resume, but when everyone else is losing, staying put can do the same as improving. With only the SoCon Tournament left, the only way the Terriers could miss the tournament now is with a loss in its first game, some bid stealers across the country and enough of the bubble to figure things out in a big way. All those things together probably won’t happen, but just in case, Wofford stays unlocked. One win in the SoCon Tournament, though, and this team has nothing to worry about come Selection Sunday.
OVER THE BUBBLE
UCF (AAC): 22-6, NET: 29, SOS: 48, vs. Q1: 1-3
I’ve said for weeks that all UCF needed was a Q1 win, let alone an elite win, and it got it this weekend. The game at Houston on Saturday was front and center on national television for all of the country to see, and UCF made it known that this is a tournament-caliber team. This resume looks completely different with the 69-64 W at NET 6 Houston, one of the best possible wins any team could boast. With remaining games at Cincinnati and Temple at home, the Knights could lock themselves up before the AAC Tournament, but even with losses in both of those games, UCF should have a solid shot at an at-large.
Syracuse (ACC): 19-11, NET: 42, SOS: 9, vs. Q1: 3-7
One win and one loss for the Orange since our last entry, and neither are going to do much for them either way. Only one game left before the ACC Tournament: a road game against Clemson. It would help, but might not be enough to lock Syracuse up depending on what happens elsewhere. Not much to worry about for the Orange in terms of tournament qualification right now, though. Only a loss to Clemson and in their first ACC Tournament game could have them sweating, and there would need to be some resurgence on the bubble for that to happen.
Oklahoma (Big 12): 18-11, NET: 41, SOS: 23, vs. Q1: 3-9
The Sooner beat West Virginia at home Saturday, which doesn’t help but is important for avoiding anchors this time of the year. Their last two games of the regular season are both Q1 opportunities: Kansas and at Kansas State. Wins in both would make Oklahoma a lock. A split would move the Sooners off the bubble completely. Two losses might make at least one win in the Big 12 Tournament a must. Regardless, Oklahoma is currently in a good place to go dancing.
Texas (Big 12): 16-14, NET: 33, SOS: 6, vs. Q1: 5-9
This is a weird one. Texas could reasonably finish 16-16 and make the tournament, which would be the most-ever losses for an at-large bid and the first at-large .500 team. All it would take is a home loss to TCU on Saturday and no wins in the Big 12 Tournament. If that happened, Texas would certainly find itself on the bubble, but with how awful the bubble is and with how fewer teams near the cutline can boast the wins or numbers the Longhorns can, they would certainly be in play. I wouldn’t recommend letting it get that far, though. Beat TCU this weekend and take care of that possible scenario sooner than later.
Ohio State (Big Ten): 18-11, NET: 43, SOS: 41, vs. Q1: 4-8
Without Kaleb Wesson, the Buckeyes mustered 51 points in a 35-point blasting at Purdue on Saturday. Things are not looking good in Columbus at the moment, but things are looking significantly worse in other cities and towns hosting bubble teams. Ohio State could easily join them, though, with a loss at Northwestern on Wednesday. The last thing this resume needs is a loss to a non-tournament team. If Ohio State loses that game, the final game of the season, a home meeting with Wisconsin, would be the only way to avoid serious pressure in the Big Ten Tournament to win a game or two. Lucky for Ohio State, four Q1 wins and a low-40s NET are massive with the bubble in its current state.
Washington (Pac-12): 23-6, NET: 32, SOS: 69, vs. Q1: 2-4
The Huskies nearly followed up a beyond terrible loss at California with another bad loss at Stanford, but they pulled through, 62-61. The win doesn’t help the resume, but another anchor loss could have dragged Washington down to the bubble. To close out the regular season, Washington has Oregon State and Oregon, Q3 and Q2 games, respectively. Wins in both of those games, especially against Oregon State to avoid a bad loss, would move Washington away from the bubble and possibly into lock status. Losses could make the Pac-12 regular season champ nervous heading into the conference tournament.
Ole Miss (SEC): 19-10, NET: 37, SOS: 85, vs. Q1: 4-9
A one-point loss to Arkansas at home means Ole Miss missed out on one of the easiest opportunities possible for a Q1 win, but the Rebels live to fight another day. With four Q1 wins, decent numbers and no bad losses, Ole Miss would have to not win again to have much of anything to worry about on Selection Sunday. Its next game, a home matchup with Kentucky, would make any chance of missing the tournament disappear with a win, but a loss coupled with another defeat at Missouri to end the regular season would apply some pressure for the SEC Tournament. The only thing this resume is really missing is an elite-level win, but even if Ole Miss never gets that, it could still get an at-large bid with relative ease.
ON THE BUBBLE
Temple (AAC): 21-8, NET: 57, SOS: 88, vs. Q1: 1-6
The Owls took care of Tulane on Sunday, which only means they didn’t let the Green Wave tear their resume to shreds. The same problems persist: meh numbers and only one Q1 win to show. Sure, that one win is against Houston, but Temple is going to need something more to feel good about its case to the committee. Its next game is at Connecticut, which is a must-win to avoid a loss to a non-tournament team, and then a home date with UCF to end the regular season. A win in that game would do wonders for this resume and could be enough to put Temple in the tournament barring a collapse in the conference tournament. Temple is beginning to enter must-win territory.
Clemson (ACC): 17-12, NET: 39, SOS: 32, vs. Q1: 1-10
Speaking of must-win territory, Clemson is not in a position to lose at Notre Dame on Wednesday. The Tigers missed a great opportunity to change the course of their season over the weekend, losing to North Carolina at home, 81-79, in a game they led in the second half. Clemson is 1-10 in Q1 games, and you don’t need me to tell you that’s awful. That one win is a home one against NET 12 Virginia Tech, which is nice I guess, but what else is there? A decent NET, and then? Clemson has to start beating tournament teams of its going to be playing in the NIT. The game against Syracuse at home to end the regular season would be a start, but to feel at all safe, Clemson will need to pick up a few wins in the ACC Tournament, preferably against some of the conference’s best.
North Carolina State (ACC): 20-9, NET: 31, SOS: 208, vs. Q1: 2-8
State had a great collection of Q1 losses before the weekend and was generous enough to add another Saturday, this time a 78-73 defeat at Florida State that would have moved the Wolfpack off the bubble. But alas, this is what the bubble looks like in 2019. NC State is still on the right side of the cutline with a good NET for a bubble team with a home wins against Auburn, Syracuse and Clemson and neutral victory against 12-17 Penn State, which does mean something because of how much NET loves the Nittany Lions. State won’t be adding to that list until at least the ACC Tournament at this point with only games against Georgia Tech and at Boston College remaining, putting pressure on it to avoid a loss to a non-tournament team before meeting the conference in Charlotte. Two wins would be helpful as the rest of the bubble will likely implode around them, but the Wolfpack need to win a game against someone who matters to feel safe.
Lipscomb (A-Sun): 22-6, NET: 46, SOS: 253, vs. Q1: 2-3
Same as last week: win your conference tournament, because I don’t see an at-large happening. There’s no way to improve this resume at this point, and any loss would hurt it irreparably. It’s auto bid or bust for the Bison.
TCU (Big 12): 18-12, NET: 54, SOS: 25, vs. Q1: 2-8
Two losses since our last entry has TCU moving closer to the cutline but still on the right side, at least for now. Its final regular season game is at Texas on Saturday, which would be huge for the resume to come away with. A loss would add significant pressure to make some noise in the Big 12 Tournament, and the committee is never going to like a four-game losing streak to end the season no matter who the opponents are. At this point, the Horned Frogs have lost six of seven, the only win against Iowa State at home Feb. 23. Beating the Cyclones is great, and while TCU has home wins against Texas, Baylor and Florida, its only two Q1 wins are versus Iowa State. The committee would prefer to see a team can beat good teams with some frequency, not just match up well against one good team. A sweep against Texas would help, but even better would be a win in the Big 12 Tournament against one of the conference’s best not named Iowa State. Perhaps regardless of what happens in Austin, that would put Jamie Dixon’s squad in the field of 68.
Seton Hall (Big East): 16-12, NET: 63, SOS: 49, vs. Q1: 4-7
For most of the season, Seton Hall’s wins have been able to make up for the lackluster numbers, but that stops when the wins aren’t coming. The Pirates have now lost three straight and might need to win one of their final games against Marquette and Villanova, both at home, to stay in the field heading into the Big East Tournament. There’s no better opportunities they could ask for, though, and have control of their own at-large destiny, which is more than can be said for some other teams in this category. Seton Hall should also be rooting Creighton on pretty hard, as it swept the season series, and the Bluejays playing well only make those wins more valuable.
Georgetown (Big East): 18-11, NET: 72, SOS: 89, vs. Q1: 3-6
Georgetown has much of the same problem Seton Hall does: a solid collection of wins, but awful numbers. The Pirates have an elite win and slightly better numbers, which explains the space between the two on the bubble, but Georgetown helped close that gap a bit by defeating Seton Hall at home in double overtime Saturday. It will take more than that to get Georgetown in the tournament, though. The Hoyas have road games at DePaul and Marquette to end the season: a resume destroyer and a resume savior. The NET is so bad that Georgetown has to have some serious wins to boast to make up for it, making the game at Marquette a potential must-win depending on the draw in the conference tournament.
Creighton (Big East): 15-13, NET: 49, SOS: 13, vs. Q1: 3-10
If you want proof of how much winning at Marquette can do for a resume, look no further than Creighton. The Bluejays won in Milwaukee on Sunday, solving its resume biggest issue. Previously, all Creighton had was a neutral court win against Clemson and road wins at Georgetown and Providence and hadn’t shown the ability to beat tournament-caliber teams, home or away. The numbers were always there, so that win was all that was needed to get some real bubble attention. With that under its belt, Creighton enters the conversation, but there’s still plenty of work to do. The bubble is extremely soft, but only one win against a surefire tournament team might not be enough come Selection Sunday. Unfortunately, the Bluejays have two Q3 games left before the conference tournament, meaning it will have to wait for an opportunity to improve its resume. But that shows just how crucial it was to win at Marquette over the weekend. Without that win, only a run to the championship game in the Big East Tournament would have brought Creighton into the bubble conversation.
St. John’s (Big East): 20-10, NET: 61, SOS: 65, vs. Q1: 6-4
You see the Q1 record, and you think, how could this team possibly be on the bubble? I mean, look around. Six Q1 wins? Not many bubble teams can match that, and that’s true. That’s why the Red Storm are still in the tournament right now. But since the home win against Villanova on Feb. 17 that bought St. John’s a lot of good will, the team is 1-3 with a home loss to Xavier and road defeat at DePaul, adding a second Q3 loss to its resume. The numbers are certainly not doing this team any favors, either. A road date at Xavier is the last regular season game on the schedule, and a loss would be wise to avoid. It likely wouldn’t knock St. John’s out of the tournament, but coupled with a flame out in the Big East Tournament could despite the great to good wins from earlier in the season.
Indiana (Big Ten): 15-14, NET: 55, SOS: 28, vs. Q1: 6-9
Every year, there’s a team the general public can’t believe is getting bubble attention this late in the season but the resume supports it, and Indiana is 2019’s version. The Hoosiers have won two in a row, their first winning streak of any kind since early January, and both wins have done wonders for their resume. Wisconsin and Michigan State are two of the best in the Big Ten, and beating them back to back, along with the previous wins and passable numbers, means Indiana is going to get attention with the bubble in its current state. There’s no margin for error, and remaining games at Illinois and Rutgers in Bloomington are both must wins. But if Indiana can close the regular season with a four-game winning streak and pick up a win or two in the Big Ten Tournament, it could easily find itself with an at-large bid, even if people don’t like it.
Minnesota (Big Ten): 18-11, NET: 56, SOS: 55, vs. Q1: 2-8
No change for the Gophers as they didn’t play this weekend. Two games remain on the schedule: Purdue and at Maryland. Losses in both would help bring Minnesota closer to the cutline, perhaps even to the wrong side, and make at least one, maybe two, wins in the Big Ten Tournament an absolute must depending on the opponents. With the softness of this bubble, simply splitting could be enough to save Minnesota’s season. It’s put up or shut up time for the Gophers.
Utah State (MWC): 23-6, NET: 30, SOS: 100, vs. Q1: 2-2
Utah State had to beat Nevada when the Wolfpack came to town over the weekend, and it got it. At this point, the Aggies need to avoid a bad loss at Colorado State to close the season and avoid any other anchors in the Mountain West Tournament and they should be in. If Utah State does add a bad loss to its resume before Selection Sunday, it will sweat when the bracket comes out, but at this point it has provided itself a safety net.
Belmont (OVC): 24-4, NET: 45, SOS: 238, vs. Q1: 2-1
Keep on chugging along, Bruins. There’s nothing you can do but win against the bad competition you face in the OVC, so keep it up. Belmont clinched a top seed in the OVC Tournament with an 84-66 win at Southeast Missouri State, putting it on the opposite side of the bracket from Murray State. While the Bruins could get close to the cutline with a loss in the OVC Tournament Final, I don’t think the committee would give them the benefit of the doubt. Similar to Lipscomb, it’s probably auto bid or bust for Belmont.
Arizona State (Pac-12): 20-9, NET: 68, SOS: 72, vs. Q1: 3-3
Arizona State took care of business at Oregon State on Sunday, bouncing back from the whooping it took in Eugene a few days earlier. It was close, but a win is a win, and Arizona State needs whatever it can get. The Sun Devils sport one of the weirdest resumes in at-large consideration, with some fantastic highs and crushing lows. The only team in its conference worth beating is Washington, and unless Arizona State gets the fourth seed, it won’t be able to play the Huskies until the Pac-12 Tournament Final, and by then it’s too late to matter for at-large chances. That means avoiding any bad losses is imperative for Arizona State from here on, and that starts with the trip to Tucson against its hated rival Arizona to end the regular season Saturday.
Alabama (SEC): 17-12, NET: 53, SOS: 21, vs. Q1: 2-8
The Crimson Tide had its chance to get off the bubble but couldn’t hold on against LSU on Saturday, falling 74-69 to the Tigers. Alabama now has Auburn and at Arkansas remaining, two potential Q1 opportunities. Neither win would do what the one against LSU would have, but anything is better than nothing at this point. If Alabama is unable to find one win out of the two, it’s going to need to make some serious noise in the SEC Tournament to get into the field of 68.
Florida (SEC): 17-12, NET: 35, SOS: 64, vs. Q1: 3-9
Florida had done so much good for itself during its five game winning streak, most notably with wins at Alabama and at LSU. But then the Gators went and threw some of it away with a 61-55 home loss to Georgia, giving the Bulldogs their second SEC win of the season. Now is not the time to be adding Q3 losses to your resume, but Florida has been taking an unconventional approach to making the tournament all season. The Gators now have a home rematch with LSU and a trip to Kentucky as its last two regular season games, and a win in one of them would be massive. Losses in both would give other bubble teams the chance to pass Florida, and the Gators would need some success in the SEC Tournament to make up that ground.
Furman (SoCon): 21-6, NET: 44, SOS: 207, vs. Q1: 1-5
A win at Chattanooga on Saturday means nothing. Furman is going to need a loss to Wofford in the SoCon Tournament Final, only massive blowouts win on the road there and a miracle in order to get an at-large. Just move along, because it ain’t happening.
BUBBLE BURSTING
Davidson (A-10): 21-8, NET: 71, SOS: 128, vs. Q1: 0-2
Providence (Big East): 16-13, NET: 78, SOS: 51, vs. Q1: 4-7
Xavier (Big East): 16-13, NET: 70, SOS: 45, vs. Q1: 3-8
Butler (Big East): 15-14, NET: 59, SOS: 19, vs. Q1: 2-9
Nebraska (Big Ten): 15-14, NET: 51, SOS: 71, vs. Q1: 2-11
Old Dominion (C-USA): 23-6, NET: 76, SOS: 237, vs. Q1: 1-0
Murray State (OVC): 25-4, NET: 50, SOS: 267, vs. Q1: 0-2
Oregon (Pac-12); 17-12, NET: 64, SOS: 67, vs. Q1: 1-5
Arkansas (SEC): 15-14, NET: 73, SOS: 30, vs. Q1: 2-8
UNC Greensboro (SoCon): 26-5, NET: 58, SOS: 142, vs. Q1: 1-5
St. Mary’s (WCC): 20-11, NET: 38, SOS: 39, vs. Q1: 1-6
