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South Region - March Madness Complete Breakdown

South Region – March Madness Complete Breakdown

The regular season is over, conference tournaments have completed and Selection Sunday has came and went. The most wonderful time of the year is upon us: March Madness. Here’s everything you need to know about the SOUTH region!

The regular season is over, conference tournaments have completed and Selection Sunday has came and went. The most wonderful time of the year is upon us: March Madness.

Winning a national championship is something special in every sport, but college basketball has the unique importance of the Final Four. With a tournament this large, breaking it down into four mini-tournaments is the way to look at it. Each region has its own twists and turns that give us four separate sets of storylines to follow. Let’s go in-depth, region-by-region, to break down the 2019 NCAA Tournament.


EastWestMidwest

SOUTH REGION

Eight of the 30 slowest teams in the country are in the South region: Virginia, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Oregon, St. Mary’s, Villanova and Old Dominion, and UC Irvine and Purdue prefer low-possession games, too. You can expect most of the games in this region to be low scoring with few possessions, making every trip down that much more important. It presents an interesting situation for Virginia and Tennessee, the top two seeds in the region.

Most games the Cavaliers encounter will probably come against teams who are comfortable with their style of play and even welcome that tempo, while Tennessee will constantly be fighting to speed its games up. The Vols are an outlier in play style in this region, especially among the likely contenders to go to the Final Four. If they can’t control the tempo of their games, they will not go far with these matchups.

South Region - March Madness Complete Breakdown

Top Five Threats (By KenPom)

  • 1 Virginia (1),
  • 2 Tennessee (8),
  • 3 Purdue (10),
  • 5 Wisconsin (12),
  • 4 Kansas State (23)

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup

12 Oregon vs 5 Wisconsin

Oregon fought its way into the tournament, winning eight-straight games to close the season, including four in four days to win the Pac-12 Tournament. The Ducks are playing as well as anyone and certainly much better than the No. 12 seed they were given. Wisconsin could be a difficult matchup for Oregon, though, because the Badgers defend just as well. The Ducks like to draw you into a half court game, scrap their way to defense stops and steals and pull together enough points, often in gritty and rough ways, to win.

The thing is, Wisconsin likes to play pretty similarly, and it has done it more effectively all year in a much better league. The Badgers are the better team, and I feel confident in saying that, but in a one game situation? Oregon is hot and guard Payton Pritchard is a heat-seeking missile for the rim. A month ago, Wisconsin would have probably won this game by double digits. Now? Who knows.

Most Intriguing Possible Second Round Matchup

7 Cincinnati vs 2 Tennessee

Like I explained, Tennessee is an outlier in this region in style of play, and assuming the Bearcats get by Iowa in the first round, the Vols would immediately have to deal with it. Cincinnati drags the game out and forces you to be efficient offensively against its bruising defense. Cincinnati prides itself on being the toughness team on the court every game, and that’s how it wins games.

When Kentucky pounded Tennessee, the Wildcats knocked forward Grant Williams around, putting him on the ground consistently. I would expect the Bearcats would try something similar, and it would be interesting to see how Williams and Tennessee handled it this time around.

Honorable mention goes to the winners of Wisconsin-Oregon and Kansas State-UC Irvine, all quality teams that play the same slow style. The team that makes it to the Sweet 16 of those four will have truly fought and scrapped its way there.

Most Intriguing Possible Sweet 16 Matchup

5 Wisconsin vs 1 Virginia

These two teams have become the faces of their slow brand of basketball, and it would be a treat to see them together on the same court vying for supremacy. The Cavaliers might be an offense-first team for the first time, but they still play in a similar manner and lock it down defensively. The Badgers don’t have the same efficiency on offense as Virginia, but the defense is comparable.

Forward Ethan Happ is one of the best low post scorers in the nation, let alone this tournament, but Virginia is loaded with interior defenders, with center Jack Salt and forward Mamadi Diakite both ranking in the top 10 in the ACC in defensive rating. Virginia has been the most effective team this season, but if both teams are completely comfortable with the slow pace and low number of possessions, would it neutralize some of Virginia’s normal advantages? Only one way to find out.

Most Intriguing Possible Elite Eight Matchup

2 Tennessee vs 1 Virginia

The top of college basketball has put some distance between itself and the level below it, and you have to be excited for any possible matchup between those dominant forces at any point in the tournament. Tennessee is one of the few faster-paced teams Virginia could see in this region, and it could present some issues for the Cavaliers. Virginia lost twice to Duke, and Williamson was a big reason why. Williams and Admiral Schofield are not the same as Williamson, but both can be loads when driving the lane, dominate down low and step out for a mid-range or three.

You also have Jordan Bone forcing the issue, and Tennessee would try to run the floor as much as possible to avoid dealing with Virginia’s set half-court defense. The Vols are more vulnerable defensively, and Virginia is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country and extremely efficient on the offensive end. Would Tennessee be able to control the tempo of the game, or would Virginia slowly choke them to death?

Upset Alert

6 Villanova

Villanova won the Big East Tournament for the third year in a row, but this isn’t the same team that won two of the last three national championships. The Wildcats are paired with St. Mary’s, a team that’s nearly identical according to KenPom. Villanova is ranked 26th overall, with the 16th-most efficient offense and 73rd-most efficient defense, and a tempo ranking 333rd in the nation. The Gaels are slotted 31st overall, with the 21st-most efficient offense and 55th-most efficient defense, and they’re ranked 347th in tempo.

Villanova has been allowing some guards to score and control games against it lately, and Jordan Ford has plenty of ability to do just that. The Gaels were always going to be a tough out for whatever team landed them in the first round, and Villanova was unlucky enough to be the one.

Possible Cinderella

11 St. Mary’s

With so many teams playing similar slow styles, a lot of lower seeds will have a chance in this region. I’m going with St. Mary’s, though, in part because of the ceiling it displayed while taking down Gonzaga in the WCC Final, 60-47, in a game it ran from start to finish. In doing so, St. Mary’s proved it could do the same against a team like Tennessee or Purdue, and this team has the scoring point guard who can completely control a game in Ford. He averages 21.3 points per contest and shoots 42.3 percent from three.

More importantly, though, there are two other options in guard Tanner Krebs and forward Malik Fitts who also shoot better than 40 percent from behind the arc. A team with a quick point guard who can score and the ability to knock down triples is a great archetype for a successful March Madness team, and St. Mary’s has that.

NBN’s Pick

2 Tennessee over 1 Virginia

I explained earlier what intrigues me about this matchup, and if it comes, I think Tennessee’s size and ability to effectively run through Bone would be enough to sneak by Virginia. The Vols have blueprints from Duke and Florida State on how to beat Virginia, and one is to never let the Cavaliers settle in offensively. Hands everywhere, always looking to disrupt with deflections and closing out well. The Vols aren’t the kind of team that can do only that and still beat Virginia, but if they can take Virginia off its rhythm just enough and use Bone to push the ball and attack offensively, it can work.

Tennessee is going to want to maximize the number of possessions in the game, and Virginia will want it to be as low as reasonably possible. If you play the Cavaliers like Duke and Florida State did, it can be done, and I think Tennessee can do it with the skill sets of Bone, Williams and Schofield.

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