The regular season is over, conference tournaments have completed and Selection Sunday has came and went. The most wonderful time of the year is upon us: March Madness.
Winning a national championship is something special in every sport, but college basketball has the unique importance of the Final Four. With a tournament this large, breaking it down into four mini-tournaments is the way to look at it. Each region has its own twists and turns that give us four separate sets of storylines to follow. Let’s go in-depth, region-by-region, to break down the 2019 NCAA Tournament.
MIDWEST REGION
North Carolina and Kentucky appear to be on a crash course for another Elite Eight meeting, but this region does have a few teams I could see taking either of them out. Auburn, Iowa State, Wofford, Utah State and Seton Hall all ended their seasons in pretty positive ways, either with or near conference tournament titles wrapped up.
Teams with guards who can fill up the stat sheet seem to be the most dangerous for upsets in the Big Dance, and all of those teams have that, not to mention Houston is no slouch. While I don’t think this region is as loaded as the West, it still has a handful of teams who could ruin a lot of predictions.
Top Five Threats (By KenPom)
- 1 North Carolina (6),
- 2 Kentucky (7),
- 5 Auburn (13),
- 3 Houston (15),
- 6 Iowa State (16)
Most Intriguing First Round Matchup
10 Seton Hall vs 7 Wofford
What a nice reward for Wofford for a great season: an underseeded Seton Hall team that just got done making a run to the Big East Tournament Final and won four-straight beforehand, including two victories over Marquette and one over Villanova. Pirates guard Myles Powell hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points in a month, and there have been a handful of games he has won nearly single-handedly. But Wofford has a superstar of its own in guard Fletcher Magee. He’s posting 20.5 points per game and shoots 42.8 percent from three. But what really makes his special is how he gets his triples off.
He spins, contorts and fades in all directions to create even the slightly look at the basket, and it’s all he needs. He is two triples away from tying Travis Bader at 504 for the most three pointers in an NCAA career, and there is no one in the country more dangerous coming off a screen. Both teams have other pieces to round out the squads around their stars, but there’s an unlimited amount of praise you could heap on Powell and Magee. Only one can go through to the next round, though. This isn’t just the game I’m most excited for in this region: this is the game I’m most excited for, period.
Most Intriguing Possible Second Round Matchup
10 Seton Hall/7 Wofford vs 2 Kentucky
No matter who wins the first round game between Seton Hall and Wofford, the second-round showdown with Kentucky could be a classic for all the same reasons that would have me anxiously awaiting the Terriers and Pirates first-round meeting. Seton Hall and Kentucky already played once this season with the Pirates winning 84-83 in overtime on Myles Cale three with 9.5 seconds to go, so we know they have the ability to upset the Wildcats. With how the Terriers play offense, they could do it, too. Wofford is 12th in offensive efficiency in KenPom and have more than Magee for opponents to worry about.
Forward Cameron Jackson is a load inside, putting up 14.6 points and 7.5 rebounds per outing, as well as 2.7 assists per game, a great illustration of how fluid this team plays offense. The ball is always moving, they’re always looking to exploit mismatches and this is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, with four different players shooting at least a 41 percent clip. Regardless of who it is that faces Kentucky in the second round, it’s going to be a big opportunity for a tournament-altering upset.
Most Intriguing Possible Sweet 16 Matchup
5 Auburn vs 1 North Carolina
Want to watch an offensive explosion? Watch this game, assuming it happens. These are two of the deadliest offenses in the country, with both in the top 10 for offensive efficiency in KenPom and possessing some of the best scorers in the NCAA. For the Tar Heels, guards Cam Johnson and Coby White fill it up, both scoring more than 16 points per game and chipping in significantly with assists and boards. The offense runs through White, literally and figuratively, as Carolina wants to race you down the floor every time it has the ball in its hands, and there are few players in the nation more adept at it than White.
Auburn relies heavily on guards Bryce Brown and Jared Harper, both scoring better than 15 points per contest, Harper in particular for his distribution and ball handling. UNC guard Kenny Williams is one of the best defenders on a great defensive team, and he would be tasked with handling one of Auburn’s stars. The Tigers sometimes make poor decisions and would have to take good care of the ball if they play the Tar Heels, because otherwise they will constantly have to defend in transition without any momentum going toward their basket, or in other words, two points for Carolina. Auburn has shown as of late that when it plays at its best, it can contend with the nation’s elite, and it’s one of the few teams in the country that could score with the Tar Heels.
Most Intriguing Possible Elite Eight Matchup
2 Kentucky vs 1 North Carolina
I was tempted to choose Iowa State-North Carolina for the offensive explosion that game would bring, but nothing can surpass the possibility of another Kentucky-North Carolina Elite Eight game. Two years ago, a Luke Maye jumper was all that separated the two and continued Carolina’s pursuit of a national title, an accomplishment it would complete about one week later.
This rematch would have the potential for a similar back-and-forth, high-octane battle. Carolina games are always going to have points, and although Kentucky doesn’t like to run like the Tar Heels, it’s one of the few teams across the country that could keep up. Other than the great players on both sides, any time two blue bloods meet in March Madness, it’s must-watch basketball.
Upset Alert
4 Kansas
I don’t think any of the first-round matchups in this region are prime for upsets, but if I had to choose a team I could see being the most vulnerable, it’s Kansas. The Jayhawks are far from the team they were to start the season, with injuries and suspensions decimating the roster. This team has had issues away from home all season, and the team that won the three neutral court games in November is long gone. Kansas relies a lot on forward Dedric Lawson to score and clean up the glass, and if he has an off game, that could be all it takes.
Northeastern has five players who shoot better than 39 percent from behind the arc. In fact, the Huskies shoot 38.8 percent from three as a team, the 14th-best in the NCAA. We’ve seen mid-major upsets off hot three-point shooting many, many times before. Guard Vasa Pusica and Northeastern could do it again.
Possible Cinderella
7 Wofford
You might argue a No. 7 seed can’t be a Cinderella, but with Wofford’s historic standing in basketball and mid-major status, I’m counting it anyway. This team has all the tools to do it: fantastic outside shooting, senior leadership, great guard play and sound basketball. Magee is the exact prototype of a household name made from March Madness, and the supporting cast is there to handle the rest.
This team is every bit as good as major-conference teams and is underseeded based upon its strength. It will be difficult, with Seton Hall and probably Kentucky in the way of a Sweet 16 run, but this team can do it.
NBN’s Pick
1 North Carolina over 7 Wofford
If you can’t tell by now, I really like Wofford. But I don’t like Wofford enough to overcome North Carolina, which I think is the best team in the country and my pick for his year’s national champion. There are too many weapons on Carolina for any team other than the best defensive teams in the country to handle, but the defense is what really makes this team special. According to KenPom, the Tar Heels play with the fifth-most tempo of any team in the country, and it’s evident when you watch them. They’re giving up 72.9 points per game, but the Heels are still the 10th-most efficient defensive team, which is a testament to the conditioning and offensive ability of this team.
With the way Carolina has played for the last month, I think only one of the most elite teams in the country could hang with it. While I believe Wofford is very good and good enough to take out Kentucky and other great teams, North Carolina is where I draw the line. I’m sure Terriers fans would be plenty content with an Elite Eight run, anyway.
