Eight teams have punched their tickets to the Sweet 16 as we’ve progressed halfway through the second round. With the first 48 games out of the way, let’s take a look at what we’ve learned so far:
Chalk, chalk everywhere
By the end of the season, the cream of college basketball’s crop had set itself apart from the rest of the country more than in typical years. This tournament was predicted to be light on upsets compared to the chaos of years, and it’s lived up to the billing. Only two top-four seeds failed to make the Sweet 16, and all one, two and three seeds are still alive.
Houston and Gonzaga are the only non-power conference teams left, and they spent the season at the top of the sport. There are a lot of non-competitive games in the first two rounds, but we’re now left with the best of the best from all season long. Likely, and hopefully, this means we’re only in for battles and classics from here on out.
Survive and advance
Virginia was down big in the first half against Gardner-Webb, giving its fans flashbacks to last year’s flop, before cruising, 71-56. Tennessee trailed late in its game with Colgate after leading by double digits at half but eventually separated enough to move on, 77-70. Duke looked listless for most of its first half against North Dakota State, then turned it on in the second half to temper any hopes of an upset. Iona was raining threes on North Carolina and held a halftime lead until the Tar Heels responded in a big way in the final 20 minutes. LSU, Michigan State, Florida State and Auburn all survived scares from mid-and-small-major auto-bids, too.
And that was only the first round. Duke, LSU and Tennessee got through to the Sweet 16 by the skin of their teeth, but guess what? All those teams will play in the Sweet 16 with a dream of a national championship still alive, and that’s all that matters. It doesn’t have to be pretty. The margin of victory doesn’t matter. You don’t need highlights or flashy plays. You just have to win. If you do that, what happened in the last round is irrelevant, and the next game you earned is all that matters. You survived and advanced. That’s March Madness.
Dana Altman is one of the best
On Feb. 23, Oregon had just got done losing to UCLA, its third-straight defeat after getting blown out by Oregon State and USC. The team was 15-12 (6-8) and looked dead in the water. Eugene was counting down the days until the end of the season.
Then, the Ducks wrecked Arizona State at home, 79-51, and haven’t looked back since. With the, 73-54, second-round win against UC Irvine, Oregon’s winning streak has extended to 10. This team is unrecognizable from where it was one month ago when it couldn’t hang with the middle of the Pac-12 and is a serious threat to Virginia’s national championship hopes.
Dana Altman was already one of the sport’s best, and this run only further proves it. This might be his best job yet, transforming this team from the offensive juggernaut it was prepared to be with Bol Bol to the defensive, scrapping side it is now. The ability to completely adapt over a few months is incredible, and the players deserve plenty of praise for how they’ve handled it, too. Payton Pritchard was not having a good season for most of the year, but he has been sensational the past few weeks and looks like one of the best point guards in the country. Kenny Wooten is a one-man wrecking crew who doesn’t just protect the rim, he terrorizes anyone who dares enter his paint. Ehab Amin has become the consummate glue guy.
This team could go to the Final Four, and it wouldn’t be that outlandish at this point. They’re that good and that deep.
Defensive-dependent teams didn’t last
In February, I researched how well teams with elite defenses but average to poor offenses did in the tournament the last decade and a half. I found that teams that rely too heavily on their defenses typically do not perform well in the Big Dance and that barring a few exceptions, a fairly competent offense is required for real March Madness success no matter what.
Using Bart Torvik’s T-Rank from before the tournament started, VCU, Kansas State, Wisconsin and Florida had top 11 defenses but had offenses outside of the top 50. After the first weekend, all four teams are gone, and only Florida was able to escape the first round.
This isn’t to say defense isn’t important. Every remaining team is top 50 defensively in KenPom, and only LSU, Auburn and Tennessee are outside of the top 30. But if you rely too much on your defense and keeping your opponent’s score low to win because you have trouble putting up points of your own, the tournament is going to be a bad time.
Buckle up, because it’s about to get wild
Compared to the last few years, the first two rounds have been a snooze fest. We’ve had some great basketball, but unbelievable upsets were nil and heart-racing action was less than normal. Cinderella stories? Not this year.
But the tournament always delivers sooner or later. This is just means we will be treated to the classics later. The top 14 teams in KenPom are still alive, and we’re going to have them all playing each other from here on out.
North Carolina-Auburn could be first to 90. Florida State-Gonzaga puts an elite offense versus an elite defense. Virginia Tech-Duke is a rematch of one of the few games the Blue Devils lost all season, but this time on a neutral floor and with Zion Williamson and Justin Robinson healthy. Texas Tech-Michigan pits the top two efficient defenses in the nation against one another.
That’s only a few of the matchups set for the Sweet 16, let alone the rest of the round and the showdowns we’ll get in the Elite Eight and Final Four. It is about to be a dogfight to the national championship, and this could be one of the best finishes to the tournament we’ve seen in some time.
