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Elite 8 - Day 2: Expectations, Matchups + MORE

Elite 8 – Day 2: Expectations, Matchups + MORE

Here are in-depth breakdowns for each game: what you can expect, key matchups and more for Sunday’s showdowns.

Thursday was mostly a dud, but Friday was arguably the most interesting day of the tournament up to that point. We had a major upset and two down-to-the wire games no one can complain about (outcomes notwithstanding).

We started this thing with 68 teams, and in two weeks, we’ve almost whittled them down to the Final Four. The last two spots for the tournament within the tournament will be decided Sunday. Here are in-depth breakdowns for each game: what you can expect, key matchups and more for Sunday’s Elite 8 showdowns.


MIDWEST REGIONAL FINAL

5 Auburn vs 2 Kentucky (2:20 p.m., CBS)

How they got here:

Kentucky – defeated 15 Abilene Christian, 79-44 (1st Round), defeated 7 Wofford, 62-56 (2nd Round), defeated 3 Houston, 62-58 (Sweet 16)

Auburn – defeated 12 New Mexico State, 78-77 (1st Round), defeated 4 Kansas, 89-75 (2nd Round), defeated 1 North Carolina, 97-80 (Sweet 16)

What to expect:

Auburn made 17 threes in its Sweet 16 victory over North Carolina. Let me repeat that again, just in case the absurdity of that didn’t quite sink in: Auburn made 17 threes in 40 minutes in the damn Sweet 16 against a No. 1 seed. It does not matter who you are playing: if you splash 17 triples, you win, case closed, door shut.

Kentucky is 194th in Division-I in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot an average of 34.4 percent from deep. These teams met twice in the regular season, Kentucky winning both matchups. In the first game, Kentucky won 82-80, and the Tigers shot 13-of-30 from three-point range. In the second game, the Wildcats smacked Auburn, 80-53, and kept the Tigers to 8-of-27 from three. If you want to know what Auburn will look to do offensively and what Kentucky will game plan to stop, there you go.

Auburn forward Chuma Okeke suffered a gruesome knee injury against North Carolina that will surely keep him off the floor Sunday. He had 20 points and 11 rebounds before the incident, this third double-double this month, and has been Auburn’s best forward the entirety of the season. Without him, the Tigers get a little smaller and a little thinner, but this team showed its depth against Carolina. Guards Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, the usual stat stuffers, didn’t have a typical scoring the ball Friday, combing for 21 points on 6-of-15 shooting. Rather, it was Okeke and the rest of the crew who scored most of the team’s 97 points against Carolina’s normally-stout defense. Players like guard J’Von McCormick and forward Danjel Purifoy gave Bruce Pearl valuable minutes and points off the bench. Eight different Tigers made a three against UNC, and give of them made multiple. The services of the supporting case will be even more required with Okeke out of the picture.

Kentucky already had an advantage inside with forwards PJ Washington and Reid Travis. The Wildcats rank fourth in the nation in rebounding percentage, grabbing 57.3 percent of available boards, while Auburn is 218th at 49.5 percent. Now subtract Auburn’s best rebounder in Okeke, and things look even more dicey. Expect the Wildcats to crash the glass hard and attack the paint aggressively in this one. They cannot afford to give Auburn multiple looks within possessions, and when your opponent is capable of 17 threes in one night, you have to take advantage of your own ability at second-chance points.

Now, the Tar Heels are only one spot behind Kentucky with the fifth-highest rebounding percentage in the country, and see how that worked out for them. Seventeen threes will negate any advantage.

Key matchup: Kentucky perimeter defense vs Auburn perimeter offense

The key to this game will be Auburn’s three-point shooting. It’s what won in the Sweet 16, and it’s been Auburn’s recipe for success all season long. The Tigers spread their shooting around too much to key on one or two men, so rather than give an individual matchup, I think this is more appropriate.

Kentucky kept the most prolific three-point shooter in NCAA history, Wofford guard Fletcher Magee, without a three on 12 attempts in the second round. In the Sweet 16, the Wildcats held Corey Davis Jr. to 1-of-7 from beyond the arc and to 14 points, his second-lowest total since Feb. 14. Houston guard Armoni Brooks did light it up from deep, but in this tournament, the Wildcats have shown an ability to mitigate an opponent’s star guard. I would suspect the same will happen with Harper or Brown, which will provide opportunities for the rest of the roster to fill in like it did against Carolina. How well Kentucky can manage to defend the perimeter and the performance of Auburn’s depth shooting will decide this game.

NBN’s pick: Auburn 80, Kentucky 78

This is a difficult call, but I can’t pick against Auburn given how they Tigers have been shooting the ball lately or the emotional rally they showed in the Sweet 16 after Okeke went down. If you’re going to make that many threes, there is nothing your opponent can do. Auburn was working the ball beautifully against Carolina to create open looks, but it was knocking down contested ones, too. Do I think Auburn will make 17 threes again? No, Kentucky won’t allow that. But in a likely slower-paced game with fewer possessions, Auburn could make 10 to 13 and have a similar impact. It’s so hard to beat a team three times in the same season, and in a tournament like this, I usually side with the team with more momentum.

EAST REGIONAL FINAL

2 Michigan State vs 1 Duke (5:05 p.m., CBS)

How they got here:

Duke – defeated 16 North Dakota State, 85-62 (1st Round), defeated 9 UCF, 77-76 (2nd Round), defeated 4 Virginia Tech, 75-73 (Sweet 16)

Michigan State – defeated 15 Bradley, 76-65 (1st Round), defeated 10 Minnesota, 70-50 (2nd Round), defeated 3 LSU, 80-63 (Sweet 16)

What to expect:

Duke needed some more last-second luck to move to the Elite Eight, but it doesn’t matter. This tournament is about surviving and advancing. As long as it happens, that’s all that matters. If you need proof of this, see Auburn in this tournament.

Guard Tre Jones was huge in the win over Virginia Tech. With forward Cam Reddish out with an apparent knee injury, Duke needed a third scorer to step up, and Jones answered the call. He’s a 26.5 percent three-point shooter, but he went 3-of-7 as the Hokies dared him to shoot for much of the game. After he made a few, Virginia Tech had to respect his jumper, and it opened up space for forward Zion Williamson and others to work. If Reddish can’t play against Michigan State, the Blue Devils will need something similar, from Jones or someone else.

Michigan State has more bodies capable of containing Williamson, with forwards Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins ranking in the top 50 in Division-I in defensive rating, although it’s clear containing him is nearly impossible. Forward Nick Ward put a lot of weight in his wrist when he landed awkwardly in the second half against LSU, but it appears to have been a bruise that shouldn’t hold him out for Sunday, adding another big body for Tom Izzo to throw at Williamson. I expect Michigan State to play very physically with Williamson and throw lots of doubles at him, as have Duke’s other opponents. With how good he is, there’s only so much you can do to stop him, but this is the toughest defensive team Duke has faced in the tournament yet, according to KenPom.

Reddish’s status will have a big effect on how Duke plays offenses and Michigan State defends, but we can expect to see both teams trying to score in transition whenever possible. The Hokies found some success in transition Friday, and with guard Cassius Winston running the break, the Spartans will like their odds when moving with momentum down the floor.

It will be good for Duke to play a team that also doesn’t dive too deep into its bench. Foul trouble has been an issue for the Blue Devils all season, and that’s what happens when you have a tight rotation. The team that fouls the least will have a great shot to win.

Key matchup: Javin DeLaurier/Marques Boldon vs Xavier Tillman/Kenny Goins/Nick Ward

Duke is going to score. It’s an inevitability. With the talent of Williamson and Barrett, there’s no real way to keep them from having at least a solid scoring night. This is a team that hasn’t scored fewer than 66 points in a game all year. However, Duke has scored 87 and 91 points in losing efforts this season.

This Michigan State offense has been equally as potent as Duke’s, and even with the dominance of Winston, is a balanced team. The Spartans often get big games out of their forwards, inside and out, other than Ward. Williamson is one of the best defenders in the country. He flies around the floor, and his athleticism, length and strength allow him to close out with excellent contests even when he looks out of position. DeLaurier and Bolden are two of the other best interior defenders in the ACC, both ranking in the top 10 in defensive rating in the conference.

There have been off games for both, though, and if either of them isn’t at their best or gets in foul trouble, allowing Michigan State to control the paint on the offensive end. The Spartans have the third-highest rebounding percentage in the country at 57.7 and top 30 in offensive rebounding percentage at 33.1. Duke is not a bad rebounding team by any stretch,  but if DeLaurier and Bolden don’t have bodies on Michigan State’s bigs throughout the game, the Spartans will feast.

NBN’s pick: Michigan State 79, Duke 72

Reddish’s availability will play a big role here. I’m going on the assumption he does not play, but even if he were playing, I would still pick Michigan State. I like Tillman, Ward and Goins to win the collective battle against Williamson, Bolden and DeLaurier, and I think Michigan State will be effective team in keeping Barrett’s scoring down with how it can clog the lane, similar to the way UCF held him to 16 points on 6-of-15 shooting (4-of-12 inside the arc). Duke needed every one of its 10 threes against UCF with how the Knights defended the paint and dared the Blue Devils to beat them from the perimeter. The Spartans will do everything they can to make Duke beat them from beyond the arc, too. I’m going to play the odds and pick against the 30.2 percent three-point shooting team in that situation, particularly without Reddish.

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